27 June 2022 – Hectic Week Ahead

In the week ahead, we provide you with the necessary information to build your strategy during the upcoming week with extra knowledge.

There will be another hectic week coming up to the market with many speeches by the prominent central bankers.

In the U.S.

Market participants will continue to focus on the U.S. consumer and personal income/spending data. However, another set of inflation readings and a few key corporate earnings from the major retailers will be under the radar this week.

However, U.S. consumer confidence is expected to post a sharp decline, as personal incomes struggle to keep up with inflation. Additionally, markets expect economic indicators to start confirming the weakening in business activities and signal the start of the global recession.

Fed watchers will get more comments from Chair Powell as he attends the ECB Forum on Central Banking. Fed’s Daly, Mester, and Bullard also have scheduled speeches too. President Biden will also attend the G-7 summit, which could contain new measures aimed at easing the global food and energy crisis.

Date	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
28-Jun	USD	CB Consumer Confidence	100	106.4
29-Jun	USD	Fed Chair Powell Speaks
30-Jun	USD	Core PCE Price Index m/m		0.30%
1-Jul	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI		56.1

Eurozone & U.K.

Meanwhile in Europe, a busy week coming for Christine Lagarde as she welcomes peers to the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Portugal. President Lagarde will make appearances throughout the week and traders will no doubt be clinging to her every word.

Flash inflation data on Friday is another highlight. Traders are already pricing in a 25-basis point hike in July then at least a couple of 50 basis points thereafter. There’s clearly room for more after a late start by the ECB and the June inflation data could be the catalyst for a super-sized lift-off next month.

In the U.K. However, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s appearance at the ECB Forum on Wednesday, alongside ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is clearly the highlight. The BoE has been reluctant to super-size its rate hikes for fear of deepening the economic slump. But with more and more central banks moving in that direction, the MPC could be tempted soon. Perhaps Bailey will drop such hints on Wednesday.

Data is mostly tier two and three with revised GDP and manufacturing PMI the highlight. Pressure is ramping up on Boris Johnson after the Conservatives’ double by-election defeat and the resignation of the Tory Party Chair, Oliver Dowden.